Well, Week 5 was another good week for us. We went 9-4 again and we made it over the .500 mark for the season, let’s try to keep it there.
When you are picking every game (except Thursday night games) just getting over .500 is an accomplishment, but let’s not stop now. There are some good matchups this week, Houston at Green Bay, Dallas at Baltimore, New England at Seattle, and it all ends with Peyton Manning on Monday Night going to San Diego. Let’s hope we have the right sides again.
Stay in the loop. I usually tweet out some picks on Sunday morning, so follow me on Twitter (@Fantasource) to get the latest.
Let’s try to keep this train rolling with another winning week…
Last Week: 9-4
Season Record: 30-25-1
Sunday, Oct. 14
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1, O/U 44)
I’m calling the upset. But is it really an upset if the home team is only getting one point? Whatever, I like the Browns.
I know, I’ve said multiple times that Brandon Weeden is not a good QB, but this week that probably won’t matter. Cincinnati is 26th against the rush, so I think Trent Richardson will be able to get some yards and maybe even find the end zone again for the fourth straight week.
These teams played each other in Week 2, and even though Trent Richardson rushed for 109 yards and a TD and Weeden threw for 322 yards and two TDs the Bengals came away with a seven-point win. This week, the Browns get revenge.
I do like the Bengals offense, but I’ll take the home team to finally get their first win of the season. Because if they don’t win this week then Cleveland may not get a win until they play Oakland on December 2nd (Browns upcoming schedule is at Colts, Chargers, Ravens, bye, at Cowboys, Steelers). It’s either win this week or it could be 0-11 before you know it.
Pick: Browns +1
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3 1/2, O/U 43)
I kinda think I believe in the Jets, at least this week. The Jets really need to get their ship turned around. Last week they fought and fought and still came up short at home against the Texans.
The Colts are riding high after an upset win last week against the Packers, the same week that their head coach was diagnosed with leukemia. It was an emotional week, and a very emotional win. And now they go on the road and have to do it again.
I’ll lay the points and take the Jets. They showed some fight on Monday night. Houston walked down the field and scored on the first drive and we all thought the Jets were dead. But they played hard, and they kept themselves in it, and even though they couldn’t get a lead they showed me that they aren’t giving up yet.
Andrew Luck is good, but I’m not sure he can do it on the road. This is the Colts second road game of the season. They lost the opener 41-21 at Chicago. I think this is a game where the Jets lay it all out there and save their season; at least for 1 more week.
Pick: Jets -3 1/2
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, O/U 40)
Kansas City will be without QB Matt Cassel this week, so it’s Brady Quinn Time! Quinn is making his first start in 3 years, on the road, against a decent Tampa defense. Yeah, I know. They gave up 419 yards per game -and 500 yards passing to Eli three weeks ago – but trust me, they’re not terrible.
Ok, you say, Cassell is out so the Chiefs will just give it to Jamaal Charles. Not so fast, the Bucs rush defense is very good (allowing only 73 rushing yards per game, 5th in the league) so it’s gonna be up to Dr. Quinn, Medicine Man to get the Chiefs back on track. And even against a bad Tampa pass defense, I don’t think he can do it. Yeah, Eli threw for 500 yards against the Bucs, but Brady Quinn is no Eli Manning.
I see this game playing out like this: Tampa keeps the ball on the ground with Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount, and when Tampa is on defense they are able to control Jamaal Charles and challenge Brady Quinn to beat them. And he doesn’t.
I think Tampa wins and covers in a low scoring game.
Pick: Buccaneers -4
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9, O/U 48 1/2)
Laying nine points is a lot in the NFL, but I don’t see the Raiders staying with the Falcons in this one. In two road games this season Oakland has lost by 22 (at Miami) and 31 (at Denver).
I expect this game to play out like the Falcons game at Kansas City earlier this season, with a Falcon win of 14+ points. My mind says Atlanta wins 31-17.
This matchup comes down to a potent Atlanta passing offense going up against a weak Raiders pass defense. That should be enough for the Falcons to get a nice lead and cover the nine points.
Oakland has a decent passing game in it’s own right, but the Falcons pass defense is good, and I don’t expect Carson Palmer to be the difference in this one. I’m laying the points and saying the Falcons move to 6-0 with a big win at home.
Pick: Falcons -9
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3 1/2, O/U 44 1/2)
I watched that Monday Night game two weeks ago where the Bears ate the Cowboys alive, and yet I still like Dallas this week.
Last week the Ravens went to Kansas City and struggled for a 9-6 win. And they got a 7-point win at home against a pretty bad Browns team. Maybe the 4-1 Ravens aren’t really as good as its record shows.
In order to win this game Dallas needs to do two things that it has had trouble doing this season, limit turnovers and run the ball. And yes, I think they can do both this week.
Last week Jamaal Charles ran for 140 yards against the Ravens defense, Dallas needs Demarco Murray to do something similar in order to open up the passing game.
The Cowboys last game was a perfect storm of interceptions, bad route running and just overall lack of effort, I expect them to show up to play on Sunday and I think they can get the win on the road.
Pick: Cowboys +3 1/2
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 1/2, O/U 47 1/2)
Why would I lay 3 1/2 points with the Eagles? They have played 5 games, and 4 of those have games have been decided by a grand total of 6 points (1 point wins at Cleveland and vs. Baltimore, a 2 point win vs. the Giants and a 2 point loss at Pittsburgh). But I do like Philly to get the win this week.
The Eagles defense should be able to control the Matt Stafford and the Lions passing game and if RB Mikel LeShoure can beat you, well you really didn’t have much of a chance anyway.
Mike Vick has not thrown an interception in his last three games, now if he can just stop fumbling the Eagle fans will be very happy.
It should be a high scoring game and I think the Eagles win this by double digits to improve to 3-0 at home on the season.
Pick: Eagles -3 1/2
St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3 1/2, O/U 37 1/2)
The plan for Miami to win is simple: use their league leading rush defense to shut down Steven Jackson, and let Sam Bradford and his 76.8 QB rating try to beat them.
The Dolphins should be able to get yardage from RB Reggie Bush on the ground against a St Louis rush defense that is giving up 117 yard per game on the ground. WR Brian Hartline has been a nice surprise for Miami, but the Rams pass defense is pretty good, so as long as QB Ryan Tannehill doesn’t try to do too much and just lets Reggie Bush run, then the Dolphins should be able to get it done at home and cover the 3 1/2 points.
Pick: Dolphins -3 1/2
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+3 1/2, O/U 45)
Seattle is the lowest scoring team in the league (17 points per game), going up against the Patriots, who are the highest scoring team in the league (33 points per game). Seattle has scored over 16 points in only one game this season. The Patriots have scored less than 30 points only once this season. And the line is only three? Yup. And I like Seattle.
You can’t underestimate the Seattle defense, and the Seattle home field advantage. And I think both will work together to give Brady a hard time this week.
The new Patriots ‘no huddle’ offense is the new hotness. But that only works when the QB can audible at the line of scrimmage. And a visiting QB calling audibles the whole game at Century Link Field? Yeah, good luck with that.
I think this will be a low scoring game and I’ll take the home team getting points.
Pick: Seahawks +3 1/2
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4 1/2, O/U 43)
The Bills are playing on the west coast for the second week in a row, last week they received a 45-3 beat down in San Francisco, this week they head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that Arizona has no running backs, #1 RB Beanie Wells is still out and last week his backup, Ryan Williams, went down with an injury. So it’s up to QB Kevin Kolb to get them back on the winning track.
Buffalo has the worst defense in the league, they’ve given up 45+ points in three of their five games this season, and I think Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald should be able to move the ball against the Bills defense.
The Cardinals defense is very good and it should be able to slow down a Buffalo team that is playing it’s second west coast road game in two weeks. I like Arizona to win, how does 24-14 sound?
Pick: Cardinals – 4 1/2
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6 1/2, O/U 45 1/2)
REVENGE!! The 49ers are still reeling from that NFC Championship loss last year. Kyle Williams, you know the butterfingers who fumbled two punts and pretty much handed the game to the Giants, said this, “We look at it as if they have something that we should have had.” I’m not a big believer in “revenge” games, but this one is different.
I think the 49ers have circled this game, and they will be ready for whatever Eli and the boys throw at them. The Giants are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks; that will be a factor also. Basically, San Francisco is just an overall better team, with a chip on their shoulder, and they are coming off wins of 34 and 42 points. They are rolling right now.
I’ll lay anything under a TD and say that the 49ers get some revenge this week. But the Giants still have the rings, so it might be a hollow victory.
Pick: 49ers -6 1/2
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3 1/2, O/U 48)
I am on the Texans bandwagon this season. I’ll admit it. But this week? This week I’m all Green and Gold. I like the Packers in this one.
Houston comes in at 5-0, and three games up on the rest of the AFC South and a division title looks all but assured
The Packers, on the other hand, are fighting for their lives. Green Bay is 2-3 and two games back of first place; they need this win.
The two offenses are pretty even, and Houston has the edge on defense. But last Monday night the Texans lost LB Brian Cushing to an ACL injury, that will hurt them. Houston has not beaten many good teams this year; four of their five wins are over Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee and the Jets.
I’ll take the points and say that the Packers could even pull the upset this week in a sink or swim game for them.
Pick: Packers +3 1/2
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+2 1/2)
Minnesota is the surprise team so far this season. 4-1 and in first place in the NFC North. Who saw that coming?
Redskins may be without QB Robert Griffin who suffered a concussion last week against Atlanta, but all indications are that he should play this week.
Having Griffin available will definitely help the the Redskins offense, but who is going to help the Redskins defense? Washington is near the bottom of the league in yards per game allowed (416 yards) and are giving up almost 30 points per game.
Minnesota has held their last 3 opponents to 13 points or less, including an impressive win over the 49ers in Week 3. I’ll lay the points on the road and say the Vikings put up 30 points, Christian Ponder has a big day and the Redskins stay winless at home.
Pick: Vikings -2 1/2
Monday, Oct. 15
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-1 1/2, O/U 49 1/2)
The Chargers have three wins this season, they are against Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City, who are a combined 3-11 and could be three of the worst teams in the league.
Denver is 2-3 and has played at Atlanta, at New England, and home against Houston and Pittsburgh. That’s a pretty dramatic difference in strength of schedule.
I like the Broncos in this one. Drew Brees put up 370 yards and 4 TD’s against the Chargers defense, I expect the Broncos to try to do the same. Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas should have big days.
Winning on the road on Monday Night isn’t easy, especially in a division game but I think the Peyton and the Broncos have the better team on both sides of the ball. I’ll take any points you can give and say thank you.
Pick: Broncos +1 1/2