(CBS Seattle) — Spokane could be the location of the next mass shooting, according to new data compiled by The Atlantic magazine.
After Navy Yard gunman Aaron Alexis went on a shooting rampage killing 12 people Monday, writer Philip Bump looked into data surrounding mass shootings — which led him to make a prediction of where another mass killing would take place.
Bump analyzed historical data on shootings over the last 30 years collected by Mother Jones magazine.
According to Bump’s prediction, the shooting will be in Spokane on February 12, 2014 at a place where the shooter used to work. The shooter will be a 38-year-old white man who is mentally disturbed. Seven people will be killed and six more will be wounded by a gun the shooter purchased legally in the state of Washington.
Bump emphasizes that these details are, of course, a prediction and not fact.
Trends that Bump came across in his research revealed that more than 65 percent of spree- and mass-shootings that occurred during the last 30 years were committed by white men. According to Bump’s data, workplace-related shootings are twice as common as school shootings and nearly 82 percent of the weapons used were obtained legally in the same state as the shooting.
The Spokane prediction was calculated using data on how frequently shootings have occurred and which months had more incidents. Six shooting events have taken place in February.
So, why Spokane?
Bump says his team looked at the ratio of shootings to a state’s population. For example, California has had the most incidents, according to the data, and is also the most populous state. There have been five shootings in Washington state, but based on its population only one shooting would be predicted. The average population in cities where shootings have occurred is 214,000. Spokane’s population is 209,000.
Based on Bump’s research, there has been a shooting incident on average, every three months since President Obama took office, which means if they continue at that pace, there will be 14 more before the end of his term.
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