Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, September 22, 2018, 3:30 pm ET

TEXAS A&M +26

Alabama is a juggernaut. You know it. I know it. Everybody knows it. And because everybody knows it, I think this line is off. Yes, Alabama is better than Texas A&M, but it’s not 26 points better.

SportsLine Expert: Tom Fornelli (16-7 in last 23 CFB picks)

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon Ducks
Saturday, September 22, 2018, 8:00 pm ET

OREGON +2

Conventional thought suggests that a good defense trumps a good offense. This is true, especially when you’re talking about Pac-12 football. Oregon QB Justin Herbert has been excellent so far, while K.J. Costello for Stanford has been up-and-down, showing a propensity to turn the ball over. As good as Bryce Love is for the Cardinal, there’s always a chance that he could miss a series or two because of injury concerns. There are too many questions for the Cardinal to believe in them in this game. Oregon plays the same frenetic speed all game long, and has the advantage at the most important position.

SportsLine Expert: Emory Hunt (8-5-1 in last 14 CFB ATS picks)

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Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints prepares to throw the ball during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 16, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Drew Brees (Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 23, 2018, 1:00 pm ET

NEW ORLEANS +3

The Saints have yet to cover this season, but I think that changes Sunday against the banged-up Falcons. Drew Brees has been better on the road lately (100-plus passer rating last three away games), and last year he threw for 682 yards and five TDs with no INTs in two games versus the Falcons. Grab the points.

SportsLine Expert: Larry Hartstein (5-3 in last 8 NFL ATS picks)

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 23, 2018, 1:00 pm ET

DENVER +5.5

Case Keenum has more picks (4) than TDs (3), but he’s also got two come-from-behind home wins to start the season. The defense has been coming up with big plays in key moments and allows just 78 ypg on the ground. But perhaps the most impressive change for Denver has been the running game, averaging 157 yards between the two games. Rookie RBs Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are getting frequent openings and taking advantage. Broncos can win this game, but I’ll take the points.

SportsLine Expert: Micah Roberts (9-4 in last 13 NFL ATS picks)

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs drops back to pass in the first quarter during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on September 16, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Patrick Mahomes (Photo Credit: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 23, 2018, 1:00 pm ET

OVER 56

Kansas City’s combination of horrendous defense and efficient offense has been a perfect recipe for shootouts, as their games have averaged a combined 72.5 points. That is with the Chargers dropping two open touchdowns in week 1! KC grades as PFF’s worst coverage and tackling team so far, and the pass rush has been invisible. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 677 passing yards out of clean pockets against KC, which is the most in the NFL by over 100 yards. That’s great news for Jimmy G and company, as Garoppolo’s passer rating climbed from 63.3 (25th in the NFL) when under pressure in 2017 to 110.1 (6th) when kept clean. With little pressure coming from KC’s defense, Garoppolo should have no problem picking them apart. Pound that OVER.

SportsLine Expert: Jacob Gibbs

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