Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 29, 2018, 7:30 pm ET

PENN STATE +3.5

This is the game of the year in the Big 10 and possibly the game of the year in regards to the CFB playoff. My ratings are very high on both of these teams. I have Ohio State ranked #4 at 26.92 and Penn State #6 at 25.02 on a neutral field. My model makes home field advantage worth 2.2 points for Penn State, suggesting this game should be a pick’em. It’s difficult to bet against Ohio State, but you’re getting 3.5 points of value here. The sharp money agrees early as 61% of bets are on Ohio State while 52% of the money is on Penn State.

SportsLine Expert: Mike McClure (3-1 in last 4 CFB O/U picks)

Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, September 29, 2018, 7:30 pm ET

STANFORD +5.5

Stanford has beaten Notre Dame the past three years and the Cardinal are underdogs in this one. Stanford has won all four of its games and feature back Bryce Love hasn’t even busted loose yet. This is his week to shine, and Stanford also has the better defense. The Irish home field is overvalued here. Take Stanford with the points.

SportsLine Expert: Micah Roberts (10-6 in last 16 CFB ATS picks)

>>MORE: See all College Football picks

Mitchell Trubisky #10 of the Chicago Bears looks to pass the ball against the Seattle Seahawks at Soldier Field on September 17, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois.

Mitch Trubisky (Photo Credit: Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 30, 2018, 1:00 pm ET

CHICAGO -3

I am not a Mitchell Trubisky fan, but even I think he’ll have a breakout game against a Bucs defense that hasn’t stopped anybody. I also think whoever goes at QB for Tampa is going to have a rough go of it against a Bears defense that leads the league in sacks and is third in interceptions.

SportsLine Expert: Adam Thompson (2-1 in last 3 NFL O/U picks)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 30, 2018, 1:00 pm ET

CINCINNATI +5

This line really stands out to me. If we’re assuming a three-point cushion for home field advantage, then that means Vegas believes Atlanta is two points better than Cincy, which is tough to agree with at the moment. The Falcons head into this one without their starting left guard, both of their starting safeties, and their starting middle linebacker. They also are unlikely to be without starting RB Devonta Freeman. Even if healthy, they do not match up well with this physical Cincinnati team. Atlanta’s offensive line ranks 26th in PFF’s pass blocking efficiency and faces a Bengals pass rush that grades out as the NFL’s seventh-strongest. That’s not good news for Matt Ryan, who ranks third in passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket, but just 20th when under pressure. Don’t be surprised if Cincy takes this one outright.

SportsLine Expert: Jacob Gibbs (4-0 in last 4 NFL picks)

Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens looks on against the Denver Broncos during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium on September 23, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland.

Joe Flacco (Photo Credit: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 30, 2018, 8:20 pm ET

PITTSBURGH -3

You know, when rivals like this play you’re typically told to throw out the record books, but that’s a stupid thing to do. History is the best predictor of the future, and history tells us that the Ravens have gone 4-2-2 ATS at Pittsburgh with Joe Flacco at QB since the 2010 season. Plus, do you want to trust this Steelers defense to cover a spread right now? I don’t.

SportsLine Expert: Galin Dragiev (3-0 in last 3 NFL ATS picks)

>>MORE: See all NFL picks